After the disruptions of recent years, global commerce shows signs of regaining momentum—but its rebound is uneven. Different industries and regions display contrasting fortunes, shaped by policy shifts, consumer demand swings and supply chain evolutions.

The following analysis explores how goods and services trade are diverging, which sectors lead or lag, and what strategic challenges lie ahead for businesses and policymakers.

Macro Overview & Forecasts

According to the WTO, global trade is slowing in 2025, with merchandise volumes expected to decline by 0.2%. Services trade offers a counterpoint, forecast to rise by 4.0%, though this figure has been revised downward amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The IMF’s projection of 1.7% growth in total trade falls below global output expectations, reflecting escalating trade tensions—notably potential new tariffs in US–China relations. In a downside scenario, overall volumes could plunge by as much as 1.5%.

Sectoral Performance and Shifts

The split between goods and services remains stark. Manufacturing and high-tech industries face headwinds from protectionist policies’ distortion of global value chains, while digital and professional services gain ground.

• Manufacturing and High-Tech: Vulnerable to tariffs and supply chain realignments; faces inventory adjustments and capacity reallocation.
• Automotive: Mixed results—US-bound exports from producers like Slovakia suffer, but regional demand cushions others.
• Agriculture and Critical Minerals: Commodity exporters in Latin America benefit from elevated prices, offsetting global demand weakness.
• Digital and Professional Services: Underpin services trade growth, driven by remote work, cloud computing, and cross-border financial services.

These trends highlight how shifting export focus can create winners in an otherwise subdued market.

Regional Trends and Dynamics

Geography plays a central role in recovery disparities. Asia and Latin America remain robust trade drivers, boosted by South–South exchanges and resilient domestic markets. By contrast, North American exports are set to drop by 12.6% in 2025, reflecting slower demand and inventory corrections.

• Africa’s intra-regional trade has retreated, reversing gains from recent years as logistical bottlenecks and financing gaps re-emerged.
• Europe and Central Asia see declining trade flows amid weaker industrial output and realignment of supply chains.
• China’s exporters are actively rerouting shipments away from the US, sometimes using third-country channels to mitigate tariffs.

Meanwhile, the EU’s monitoring mechanisms and sectoral defenses push back against China’s growing market share, which rose from 12.8% in 2017 to 14.7% in 2024.

Policy and Structural Factors

Protectionist measures remain the primary source of uncertainty. Tariffs on goods, border taxes, and regulatory barriers are reshaping traditional flows and discouraging large-scale investment.

In response, firms are embracing broad diversification of supply chains through reshoring, nearshoring and friendshoring strategies. By engaging multiple supplier regions, companies spread risk and tap emerging markets for inputs and final assembly.

Key Trade Indicators

Broader Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Export-dependent and least-developed countries face heightened risks, as reduced demand can trigger negative spillovers on growth, employment and social stability. Many of these economies lack buffers to absorb shocks, making them vulnerable to commodity price swings and external financing stress.

Although global inflation remains contained, productivity and innovation risks rise where open economies struggle to access critical inputs or scale cross-border collaboration.

Long-Term Risks and Opportunities

The resurgence of protectionism tests the balance between efficiency gains and strategic autonomy. In the long run, fragmented trade networks could undermine the benefits of comparative advantage and stifle innovation.

Yet, new opportunities emerge amid diversification. Smaller and emerging economies stand to gain from reconfigured supply chains, offering cost-effective production and growing consumer markets. Digital services can further democratize global participation, enabling businesses in remote regions to compete internationally.

Conclusion

Global trade’s uneven recovery underscores the complexity of modern commerce. Sectoral winners, like digital services and commodity exporters, contrast sharply with lagging manufacturing and regions hit by policy shifts.

Businesses and policymakers must navigate this landscape with nimble strategies—diversifying supply chains, monitoring geopolitical risks, and investing in innovation. Only by understanding both the challenges and emerging prospects can stakeholders harness growth in an uncertain world.